Important Links

A Look Back at 2017

11 December 2017PoliticsEconomics
Picture
  • At the start of 2017, Citi analysts expected a rebound in global growth, a rebound in Developed Markets (DM) inflation and a modest increase in DM policy rates. All three of these forecasts have been validated.
  • Growth rebounds: At the start of 2017, Citi analysts had forecast global growth in 2017 at 2.7% with Developed Markets (DM) growth at 1.6% and Emerging Markets (EM) growth at 4.3%. Citi analysts currently expect global growth of 3.2% in 2017. This upside surprise has been broad-based, with upward revisions to both DM (to 2.2%) and EM (to 4.7%), and it is the first upside surprise for growth in six years. This is probably due to stronger momentum in investment, industrial activity and international trade.
  • But Inflation lags: Global headline inflation has undershot our initial forecasts for the sixth year in a row, despite the upside surprise to growth. Citi analysts 2017 global inflation forecast is now 2.4%, compared to 2.8% at the start of the year. Citi analysts current forecast for DM CPI is 0.2pp lower than at the start of 2017 (now 1.8%), and 0.4pp below for EM (now 3.6%). Lower oil prices and perhaps dollar weakness may have all played a role.

  • Modest increase in DM policy rates: On average, DM monetary policy rates are likely to end the year slightly higher than Citi analysts expectations at the start of the year. The Fed may probably hike three times in 2017, including an expected 25bp hike in December (25bp more than expected), the Bank of Canada (BoC) twice (50bp more than expected) and the Bank of England (BoE) once (25bp more), while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) did not cut by 25bp, as Citi analysts had expected.

Our recent research

Picture

The Trump-Kim Summit: What Next?

US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un met for the first time in Singapore last Tuesday, signing a joint declaration that North Korea will work towards “complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula”.

Find out more

Politics
Picture

A Tale of Two Central Banks

The FOMC and ECB met last week, and their announcements highlighted the very different business cycle positon of the US and Euro Area.

Find out more

PoliticsEconomics
Picture

Investing in Data

Digital infrastructure stocks outperformed traditional REITs by 20% over the last five years and are less volatile compared to the broader tech sector.

Find out more

Economics

Take the first steps to your wealth management planning with Citi

Speak to a Relationship Manager
0207 500 1992

Already with Citi? Contact your relationship manager or view product availability on Citi Online

Why choose Citi

A relationship - not just a bank account

A dedicated Relationship Manager giving you access to our internal team of product experts and all our benefits

Access to exclusive Citi products

A range of current and investment products available both on shore and offshore, in the currency of your choice
Multi-currency accounts
Investment products

Global services for a global lifestyle

Our team is here to support you getting started in UK or with International travel and relocation
Moving to and from the UK
Travelling overseas

Offshore investments

We offer a diverse range of banking and investment services, including for those who want access to offshore investments

Find out more

Just moved to the UK?

We can save you time money and hassle. If you are a foreign national in the UK, Citi's International Banking Service can help you manage your money, home and away.

Find out more

Investment products are not insured by any governmental agencies, are not bank deposits, and are neither obligations of, nor guaranteed by, Citigroup, or any of its affiliates, unless otherwise stated. Investment products are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of some or all of the principal amount invested. Past performance is not indicative of future results, investments can go down as well as up.

“Citi analysts” refers to investment professionals within Citi Research (“CR”), Citi Global Markets Inc. (“CGMI”) and voting members of the Citi Global Investment Committee. Citibank N.A. and its affiliates / subsidiaries provide no independent research or analysis in the substance or preparation of this document. The information on this page has been obtained from reports issued by CGMI. Such information is based on sources CGMI believes to be reliable. CGMI, however, does not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute CGMI’s judgment as of the date of this page and are subject to change without notice. This page is for general information purposes only and is not intended as a recommendation or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or currency. No part of this page may be reproduced in any manner without the written consent of Citibank N.A. Information on this page has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation, or needs of any particular investor. Any person considering an investment should consider the appropriateness of the investment having regard to their objectives, financial situation, or needs, and should seek independent advice on the suitability or otherwise of a particular investment. Citi Research (CR) is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this information. Investors should consider this information as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other businesses or affiliates of Citigroup, Inc., and are not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice, and are subject to change based on market and other conditions.