Important Links

Article 50 expected final week of March

15 March 2017FXUKPolitics
Picture

Article 50 expected final week of March

With the Brexit Bill permitting, UK Prime Minister Theresa May is expected to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty in the final week of March, beginning the Brexit negotiations. The government has passed through the political hurdles, with the Article 50 announcing now being all but formality; Sterling has weakened to the lowest levels since January 2017 (1.2110*).

Amid the volatility, the weakening of GBP has benefited the FTSE 100, this is because a significant proportion of the index earnings are from overseas that when repatriated into GBP increase earnings. Therefore over the last 12 months, as GBP has been weakened, the FTSE 100 has inversely rallied.

Scottish Referendum take two?

As the market eagerly awaits the formal Brexit starting gun, the First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon announced she will seek a second Scottish Referendum.

At the time of Sturgeon's announcement the markets were relatively unmoved, primarily due to the fact that it's too early to tell how this will progress. There are a number of hurdles for Sturgeon's motion to pass, and given the impending Article 50 risk, traders weren't adjusting Sterling to price in the risk of a second Scottish Referendum. The UK government quickly responded that a "Referendum would cause huge uncertainty at the worst time", with May ruling out the Independence Referendum before Brexit.

*Source: Reuters 14/3/2017

Picture

Joe Bond

FX Counsellor

Prior to joining Citi as an FX Counsellor, Joe joined Citi after four years as the Director of a start-up FX broker. His earlier roles were as an FX Dealer based in London and the Middle East. He is a keen traveller, and enjoys skiing each season.

Our recent research

Global Market Sell-off: Is This An Opportunity?

Citi believes last week's stock sell-off is following the course of many routine corrections that have been followed by recoveries, which could be an attractive opportunity for investors as valuations recover.

Find out more

Economics

Estimating the Impact of US Auto Tariffs

Citi's baseline is that the US could announce tariffs on auto imports, and not on auto parts but with temporary exemptions for trade partners with which trade talks are ongoing.

Find out more

USA
Brent Crude Price reaches a 4-year high - Market Insights by Citibank UK

Impact of Higher Oil Prices on Asia

While Citi's Brent crude price forecast remains at $79 per barrel for Q4 2018, recent price trends warrant an assessment of what the risk of sustained higher oil prices mean for Asia.

Find out more

Emerging Markets

Take the first steps to your wealth management planning with Citi

Speak to a Relationship Manager
0207 500 1992

Already with Citi? Contact your relationship manager or view product availability on Citi Online

Why choose Citi

A relationship - not just a bank account

A dedicated Relationship Manager giving you access to our internal team of product experts and all our benefits

Access to exclusive Citi products

A range of current and investment products available both on shore and offshore, in the currency of your choice
Multi-currency accounts
Investment products

Global services for a global lifestyle

Our team is here to support you getting started in UK or with International travel and relocation
Moving to and from the UK
Travelling overseas

Offshore investments

We offer a diverse range of banking and investment services, including for those who want access to offshore investments

Find out more

Just moved to the UK?

We can save you time money and hassle. If you are a foreign national in the UK, Citi's International Banking Service can help you manage your money, home and away.

Find out more

Investment products are not insured by any governmental agencies, are not bank deposits, and are neither obligations of, nor guaranteed by, Citigroup, or any of its affiliates, unless otherwise stated. Investment products are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of some or all of the principal amount invested. Past performance is not indicative of future results, investments can go down as well as up.

“Citi analysts” refers to investment professionals within Citi Research (“CR”), Citi Global Markets Inc. (“CGMI”) and voting members of the Citi Global Investment Committee. Citibank N.A. and its affiliates / subsidiaries provide no independent research or analysis in the substance or preparation of this document. The information on this page has been obtained from reports issued by CGMI. Such information is based on sources CGMI believes to be reliable. CGMI, however, does not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute CGMI’s judgment as of the date of this page and are subject to change without notice. This page is for general information purposes only and is not intended as a recommendation or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or currency. No part of this page may be reproduced in any manner without the written consent of Citibank N.A. Information on this page has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation, or needs of any particular investor. Any person considering an investment should consider the appropriateness of the investment having regard to their objectives, financial situation, or needs, and should seek independent advice on the suitability or otherwise of a particular investment. Citi Research (CR) is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this information. Investors should consider this information as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other businesses or affiliates of Citigroup, Inc., and are not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice, and are subject to change based on market and other conditions.