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Since mid-April, the USD gained nearly 20% against emerging market (EM) Asia currencies and 10% against G10 currencies. USD strength has largely been a function of capital inflows into the US attracted by strengthening US stock prices and higher interest rates.
The USD was a safe haven as global uncertainties rose with trade tensions and concerns over Brexit.
USD strength has been historically associated with relative underperformance from EM equities, which slid 20% from April highs. Citi analysts forecast that US-China trade tensions now represent the main impediment for EM equities growth, with Fed tightening and a stronger USD largely secondary factors.
Within EM Asia, China remains the worst-performing equity market impacted by trade talks, which escalated in mid-June. Concerns over the threat of US trade tariffs and sanctions also drove down equity markets in Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong. India, Malaysia, Thailand and Taiwan have been more resilient.
Citi Analysts forecast that the recent USD strength is likely to be temporary and that fiscal stimulus, tax reform, larger deficits and a weakened net international investment position may be bearish factors for the USD in the long term.
Citi maintains its overweight call on EM Asia equities given attractive valuations and improving economic growth. Within the region, China's recent credit easing measures and government support for increasing infrastructure spending is likely to be positive for Chinese equities going forward.
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