Market Outlook 2019
Citi analysts believe the nine-year bull market has not ended as global GDP is projected to grow 3.1% in 2019 and corporate earnings remain strong. However, political risks look likely to remain a factor in 2019 given trade tensions, European political uncertainty and Brexit transition deal. Given that market volatility is likely to remain, what should be the investment outlook to take advantage of opportunities ahead?
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Volatility & Opportunities in the Late Stage Bull Market
Paul Hodes, Citibank Wealth Management Head for Asia, EMEA and UK, discusses with Citi specialists a review of global market volatility in 2018 and potential opportunities for investors in 2019.
Growth Still Supportive, Inflation Remains Steady
Citi analysts still expect global growth of 3.1% in 2019 and inflation to slow its rate of increase to 2.4% in 2019 and 2.5% in 2020.
Bull Market Late Cycle, Not End Cycle
Citi analysts forecast the nine-year bull market is not finished and expect single-digit percentage gains by end-2019. Within equities, Citi prefers Emerging Markets (EM), particularly Asia, and Europe-ex UK.
Shelter in Times of Volatility
Citi analysts believe that selective regional markets (US Investment Grade, US High Yield and Emerging Market Debt) still offer value.
Recent slowdown in the global growth outlook, economic divergence and associated slowdown in trade has undermined demand for commodities.
Still Bearish on USD Longer Term
Structural elements driving USD weaker remain in place.
Risks May Linger
Political risks may linger into 2019 as trade tensions, Italian political uncertainties and Brexit discussions continue, even as economic fundamentals appear strong.
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