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Politics and Policies

In 2016, the Leave vote in the UK’s EU referendum and the victory of Republican candidate Donald Trump in the US election reflected the rise of the anti-establishment and anti-globalisation sentiment in Europe and the US. In Citi analysts’ view, Vox Populi risks continue to rise given sluggish growth, rising inequality and low social mobility.

In 2017, a number of events on the political calendar may crystallize these risks. They include the general election in the Netherlands, the presidential election in France and the general election in Germany.

Key takeaways

  • Unexpected political outcomes can trigger asset classes and sector rotations
  • Investors who attempt to “time” the market and exploit key events run the risk of severely underperforming when the markets turn
  • Citi analysts are underweight European equities given the long list of political hurdles in 2017
  • Citi advocate that investors stay invested maintain a diversified portfolio and keep a long term perspective, in line with your investment goals and horizon




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