As the Polls had predicted, and Citi Analysts base scenario, the Conservative Party secured a majority in Parliament at the UK General Election.
The majority of 363 seats*, provides the Conservative Party with a comfortable majority of seats, providing a clearer course for the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement.
The exit polls released at 22:00 GMT (12th December) predicted a sizeable majority (368 seats) for the Conservative Party, with the results echoing the expectation throughout the night.
Citi Analysts expect
Sterling had been trending higher since September on the reduced risk of a 'No Deal Brexit,' as the opinion polls correctly predicted a sizeable margin for the Conservative Party in recent days, GBP/USD had been edging higher***.
Citi Analysts are optimistic over the medium term, with the most recent forecasts expecting GBP/USD to be trading 1.3500 in 6-12 months.
The recent event provides an opportunity to discuss with your relationship manager, and our specialist teams (Portfolio and FX Counsellors) as to any impact the election outcome result has had on your portfolio.
*363 seats confirmed as of 7:47am 13/12/2019
**Source: Bloomberg UK 100 8:31
**Source: Bloomberg: GBP/USD Spot 9/12/2019 – 13/12/2019
Investment products are not insured by any governmental agencies, are not bank deposits, and are neither obligations of, nor guaranteed by, Citigroup, or any of its affiliates, unless otherwise stated. Investment products are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of some or all of the principal amount invested. Past performance is not indicative of future results, investments can go down as well as up.
“Citi analysts” refers to investment professionals within Citi Research (“CR”), Citi Global Markets Inc. (“CGMI”) and voting members of the Citi Global Investment Committee. Citibank N.A. and its affiliates / subsidiaries provide no independent research or analysis in the substance or preparation of this document. The information on this page has been obtained from reports issued by CGMI. Such information is based on sources CGMI believes to be reliable. CGMI, however, does not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute CGMI’s judgment as of the date of this page and are subject to change without notice. This page is for general information purposes only and is not intended as a recommendation or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or currency. No part of this page may be reproduced in any manner without the written consent of Citibank N.A. Information on this page has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation, or needs of any particular investor. Any person considering an investment should consider the appropriateness of the investment having regard to their objectives, financial situation, or needs, and should seek independent advice on the suitability or otherwise of a particular investment. Citi Research (CR) is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this information. Investors should consider this information as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other businesses or affiliates of Citigroup, Inc., and are not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice, and are subject to change based on market and other conditions.